Mapping the Galactic Halo. V. Sgr dSph Tidal Debris 60 degrees from the Main Body

As part of the Spaghetti Project Survey (SPS) we have detected a concentration of giant stars well above expectations for a smooth halo model. The position (l~350, b~50) and distance (~50 kpc) of this concentration match those of the Northern over-density detected by SDSS (Yanny et al. 2000, Ivezic et al. 2000). We find additional evidence for structure at ~80 kpc in the same direction. We present radial velocities for many of these stars, including the first published results from the 6.5m Magellan telescope. The radial velocities for stars in these structures are in excellent agreement with models of the dynamical evolution of the Sgr dwarf tidal debris, whose center is 60 degrees away. The metallicity of stars in these streams is lower than that of the main body of the Sgr dwarf, which may indicate a radial metallicity gradient prior to disruption.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures accepted in Astrophysical Journal Letter

Incidence and public health burden of sunburn among beachgoers in the United States.

The beach environment creates many barriers to effective sun protection, putting beachgoers at risk for sunburn, a well-established risk factor for skin cancer. Our objective was to estimate incidence of sunburn among beachgoers and evaluate the relationship between sunburn incidence and sun-protective behaviors. A secondary analysis, of prospective cohorts at 12 locations within the U.S. from 2003 to 2009 (n = 75,614), were pooled to evaluate sunburn incidence 10-12 days after the beach visit. Behavioral and environmental conditions were cross-tabulated with sunburn incidence. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the association between new sunburn and sun-protective behaviors. Overall, 13.1% of beachgoers reported sunburn. Those aged 13-18 years (16.5%), whites (16.0%), and those at beach locations along the Eastern Seaboard (16.1%), had the highest incidence of sunburn. For those spending ≥5 h in the sun, the use of multiple types of sun protection reduced odds of sunburn by 55% relative to those who used no sun protection (Odds Ratio = 0.45 (95% Confidence Interval:0.27-0.77)) after adjusting for skin type, age, and race. Acute health effects of sunburn tend to be mild and self-limiting, but potential long-term health consequences are more serious and costly. Efforts to encourage and support proper sun-protective behaviors, and increase access to shade, protective clothing, and sunscreen, can help prevent sunburn and reduce skin cancer risk among beachgoers

Geographic Variation in Out‐of‐Pocket Expenditures of Elderly Medicare Beneficiaries

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/107567/1/jgs12834.pd

Proxy Tasks and Subjective Measures Can Be Misleading in Evaluating Explainable AI Systems

Explainable artificially intelligent (XAI) systems form part of sociotechnical systems, e.g., human+AI teams tasked with making decisions. Yet, current XAI systems are rarely evaluated by measuring the performance of human+AI teams on actual decision-making tasks. We conducted two online experiments and one in-person think-aloud study to evaluate two currently common techniques for evaluating XAI systems: (1) using proxy, artificial tasks such as how well humans predict the AI's decision from the given explanations, and (2) using subjective measures of trust and preference as predictors of actual performance. The results of our experiments demonstrate that evaluations with proxy tasks did not predict the results of the evaluations with the actual decision-making tasks. Further, the subjective measures on evaluations with actual decision-making tasks did not predict the objective performance on those same tasks. Our results suggest that by employing misleading evaluation methods, our field may be inadvertently slowing its progress toward developing human+AI teams that can reliably perform better than humans or AIs alone

Derivation of a frailty index from the interRAI acute care instrument

Background: A better understanding of the health status of older inpatients could underpin the delivery of more individualised, appropriate health care

Toward collaborative ideation at scale: Leveraging ideas from others to generate more creative and diverse ideas

ABSTRACT A growing number of large collaborative idea generation platforms promise that by generating ideas together, people can create better ideas than any would have alone. But how might these platforms best leverage the number and diversity of contributors to help each contributor generate even better ideas? Prior research suggests that seeing particularly creative or diverse ideas from others can inspire you, but few scalable mechanisms exist to assess diversity. We contribute a new scalable crowd-powered method for evaluating the diversity of sets of ideas. The method relies on similarity comparisons (is idea A more similar to B or C?) generated by non-experts to create an abstract spatial idea map. Our validation study reveals that human raters agree with the estimates of dissimilarity derived from our idea map as much or more than they agree with each other. People seeing the diverse sets of examples from our idea map generate more diverse ideas than those seeing randomly selected examples. Our results also corroborate findings from prior research showing that people presented with creative examples generated more creative ideas than those who saw a set of random examples. We see this work as a step toward building more effective online systems for supporting large scale collective ideation

Speech Communication

Contains reports on three research projects.U.S. Air Force (Air Force Cambridge Research Center, Air Research and Development Command) under Contract AF 19(604)-2061National Science Foundatio

Modelling Cognitive Decline in the Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial [HYVET] and Proposed Risk Tables for Population Use

Although, on average, cognition declines with age, cognition in older adults is a dynamic process. Hypertension is associated with greater decline in cognition with age, but whether treatment of hypertension affects this is uncertain. Here, we modelled dynamics of cognition in relation to the treatment of hypertension, to see if treatment effects might better be discerned by a model that included baseline measures of cognition and consequent mortalityThis is a secondary analysis of the Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial (HYVET), a double blind, placebo controlled trial of indapamide, with or without perindopril, in people aged 80+ years at enrollment. Cognitive states were defined in relation to errors on the Mini-Mental State Examination, with more errors signifying worse cognition. Change in cognitive state was evaluated using a dynamic model of cognitive transition. In the model, the probabilities of transitions between cognitive states is represented by a Poisson distribution, with the Poisson mean dependent on the baseline cognitive state. The dynamic model of cognitive transition was good (R(2) = 0.74) both for those on placebo and (0.86) for those on active treatment. The probability of maintaining cognitive function, based on baseline function, was slightly higher in the actively treated group (e.g., for those with the fewest baseline errors, the chance of staying in that state was 63% for those on treatment, compared with 60% for those on placebo). Outcomes at two and four years could be predicted based on the initial state and treatment.A dynamic model of cognition that allows all outcomes (cognitive worsening, stability improvement or death) to be categorized simultaneously detected small but consistent differences between treatment and control groups (in favour of treatment) amongst very elderly people treated for hypertension. The model showed good fit, and suggests that most change in cognition in very elderly people is small, and depends on their baseline state and on treatment. Additional work is needed to understand whether this modelling approach is well suited to the valuation of small effects, especially in the face of mortality differences between treatment groups.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0012281